The rain was tapping a steady rhythm against my office window, the gray afternoon light making the screen glow brighter than usual. I’d just finished another grueling run in that new roguelike everyone’s talking about—the one where each attempt layers upgrades in wild, unexpected ways. You start with something simple, a basic damage boost, and before you know it, you’ve built a character that oozes corrosive slime while your damage-over-time ticks skyrocket. There’s a solid amount of variation from one run to another, and honestly, it’s that element of stacking potential—of watching small advantages snowball into something game-breaking—that keeps me hooked even after twenty tries. It’s a lot like following the NBA, now that I think about it. Every season is a new run. Teams shuffle their lineups like levels shuffling mini-bosses; one night you’re facing a team that rains threes, the next, they’re locking down the paint like Karai switching from kunai to fire attacks mid-fight. It keeps things fresh, even when luck seems to stack the odds against you. And that got me wondering, as I eyed the latest futures board: NBA outright winner odds—which team offers the best value this season?

Let’s be real, we all love an underdog story, but we also want to feel smart about where we place our faith (or let’s be honest, our hypothetical bets). I remember last season, I was all in on the Suns. They had the chemistry, the depth—on paper, they were the perfect build. But then injuries hit, and suddenly it felt like every playoff game was set to hard mode. That’s the thing about sports, and honestly, about games with procedural bosses: you can study all the data, memorize the patterns, and still get blindsided. So this year, I’m taking a slightly different approach. I’m looking not just at who’s favored, but at who’s undervalued. Who’s got that sneaky potential to stack upgrades as the season progresses? The Warriors, for instance, are sitting at around +600 to win it all. With Curry still pulling off miracles and their young core getting more minutes, that feels almost generous. But then you look at the Celtics, hovering near +350, and you have to ask—are they the finished product, or just another mini-boss that hasn’t revealed its full arsenal yet?

I was talking to my friend Leo the other day, a die-hard Bucks fan, and he made a great point. He said following Giannis and Middleton reminds him of those roguelike runs where your starting loadout is already overpowered. You don’t need as many upgrades to dominate. The Bucks are currently listed at +450, which isn’t exactly a long shot, but given their consistency, it’s a safer bet than chasing flashier, unproven squads. Still, safe doesn’t always mean best value. I’ve always had a soft spot for teams that evolve during the season—the ones that start a little shaky but discover a killer combo by the All-Star break. Think of the Grizzlies last year. Nobody saw their surge coming, but they stacked defensive upgrades and fast-break bonuses until they were terrifying. This season, I’m keeping an eye on the Cavaliers. At +1800, they’re a classic dark horse. Young, hungry, and with a defense that can switch tactics as fluidly as any video game boss altering its attack pattern.

Of course, there’s a risk in going for the long shots. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve poured hours into a roguelike run, only to get wiped by a boss that decided to spam area-of-effect attacks I wasn’t prepared for. It’s frustrating, yeah, but it’s also what makes each attempt unique. The NBA regular season is 82 games long—that’s 82 chances for teams to tweak their builds, to experiment with lineups, to see which combinations of players create those synergistic effects that turn good teams into champions. The Nuggets, for example, have Jokic. He’s like that one upgrade that makes every other ability better. At +900, they’re not getting as much love as the top favorites, but if their role players level up, they could easily become the build nobody saw coming.

So where does that leave us? If I had to put my money where my mouth is—and believe me, I’ve thought about it—I’d say the best value right now might be the Mavericks. Luka Dončić is a cheat code. He’s the kind of player who can single-handedly carry a run, and with some offseason moves shoring up their defense, they’re sitting at a very tempting +1200. That’s the kind of odds that get me excited. It’s like finding a hidden upgrade path early in a game—one that pays off huge if you’re patient. But I’ll admit, I’m biased. I love a good narrative, and Luka leading Dallas to a title would be one for the ages. Still, as any seasoned gamer knows, you can’t just rely on one overpowered skill. You need the whole build to click. So as the season unfolds, I’ll be watching, adjusting my picks, and maybe—just maybe—finding that perfect combination that makes it all worthwhile. After all, whether it’s gaming or basketball, the thrill is in the chase.